Can China beat the US in the 2nd Space race to the Moon?

The Moon, a celestial body last visited by humans during the Apollo 17 mission in 1973, is once again at the forefront of a new space race. Both the United States and China have outlined ambitious plans to return astronauts to the lunar surface and establish permanent bases, signaling a new era of lunar competition. In recent years China has shown rapid progress in robotic exploration of the Moon, including its far side, but can China actually surpass the US in returning humans to the Moon and establishing a continuous human presence there?

China's Lunar Exploration Program: Plans and Timeline

China's lunar ambitions are encapsulated in the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, also known as the Chang'e program, named after the mythical moon goddess. This program has currently progressed through several phases, with the future phases focusing on manned missions and base construction:

• Phase 1: Orbiting (2007-2010): Chang'e 1 and 2 successfully orbited the Moon, mapping its surface and testing technologies, laying the groundwork for subsequent missions.
• Phase 2: Robotic landing (2013-2019): Chang'e 3 (2013) and Chang'e 4 (2019) achieved soft landings, with Chang'e 4 notably landing on the far side of the Moon, a first in space exploration history.
• Phase 3: Sample return (2020-2024): Chang'e 5 (2020) and Chang'e 6 (2024) returned lunar samples, with Chang'e 6 being the first to collect from the far side, enhancing understanding of lunar composition.
• Phase 4: Robotic research station (2026-2028): The goal of Phase 4 is the development of an autonomous lunar research station near the Moon's south pole. Chang’e 7 (2026) will survey the south pole for water-ice and test in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Chang’e 8 (2028) will demonstrate advanced technologies including 3D-printed structures and ISRU methods critical for a future habitat.
• Phase 5: Manned landing (2029-2030): China's National Space Administration (CNSA) aims to land its first two-person crew on the lunar surface by 2030 (in some recent presentations even 2029), using a Lanyue lander and a Mengzhou re-entry capsule launched by heavy-lift Long March 10 rockets from Hainan’s Wenchang site. Large-scale tests of the lander and capsule systems are “on schedule,” though experts note China still trails NASA in overall crewed lunar infrastructure.
• Phase 6: International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) (2035): China aims to establish ILRS in the 2030s, initially as a robotic base, with plans to make it permanently habitable after 2035. The first phase of the lunar base is expected to be completed around 2035, with an extended model by 2050, located near the lunar south pole for access to water ice.

China's technological approach includes leveraging ISRU, such as 3D-printing bricks from lunar soil during the Chang'e 8 mission, which could reduce reliance on Earth-based supplies and enhance sustainability. Research suggests China is also exploring lava tubes as potential habitats, offering natural protection from radiation and micrometeorites.