Can China beat the US in the 2nd Space race to the Moon?

The Moon, a celestial body last visited by humans during the Apollo 17 mission in 1973, is once again at the forefront of a new space race. Both the United States and China have outlined ambitious plans to return astronauts to the lunar surface and establish permanent bases, signaling a new era of lunar competition. In recent years China has shown rapid progress in robotic exploration of the Moon, including its far side, but can China actually surpass the US in returning humans to the Moon and establishing a continuous human presence there?

China's Lunar Exploration Program: Plans and Timeline

China's lunar ambitions are encapsulated in the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, also known as the Chang'e program, named after the mythical moon goddess. This program has currently progressed through several phases, with the future phases focusing on manned missions and base construction:

• Phase 1: Orbiting (2007-2010): Chang'e 1 and 2 successfully orbited the Moon, mapping its surface and testing technologies, laying the groundwork for subsequent missions.
• Phase 2: Robotic landing (2013-2019): Chang'e 3 (2013) and Chang'e 4 (2019) achieved soft landings, with Chang'e 4 notably landing on the far side of the Moon, a first in space exploration history.
• Phase 3: Sample return (2020-2024): Chang'e 5 (2020) and Chang'e 6 (2024) returned lunar samples, with Chang'e 6 being the first to collect from the far side, enhancing understanding of lunar composition.
• Phase 4: Robotic research station (2026-2028): The goal of Phase 4 is the development of an autonomous lunar research station near the Moon's south pole. Chang’e 7 (2026) will survey the south pole for water-ice and test in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Chang’e 8 (2028) will demonstrate advanced technologies including 3D-printed structures and ISRU methods critical for a future habitat.
• Phase 5: Manned landing (2029-2030): China's National Space Administration (CNSA) aims to land its first two-person crew on the lunar surface by 2030 (in some recent presentations even 2029), using a Lanyue lander and a Mengzhou re-entry capsule launched by heavy-lift Long March 10 rockets from Hainan’s Wenchang site. Large-scale tests of the lander and capsule systems are “on schedule,” though experts note China still trails NASA in overall crewed lunar infrastructure.
• Phase 6: International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) (2035): China aims to establish ILRS in the 2030s, initially as a robotic base, with plans to make it permanently habitable after 2035. The first phase of the lunar base is expected to be completed around 2035, with an extended model by 2050, located near the lunar south pole for access to water ice.

China's technological approach includes leveraging ISRU, such as 3D-printing bricks from lunar soil during the Chang'e 8 mission, which could reduce reliance on Earth-based supplies and enhance sustainability. Research suggests China is also exploring lava tubes as potential habitats, offering natural protection from radiation and micrometeorites.

US's Artemis Program: Counterpart Plans and Timeline

The United States, through NASA's Artemis program, is also pursuing a return to the Moon with a focus on sustainable exploration. The program includes the following key missions:

• Artemis I (2022): Uncrewed test flight of the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft, successfully demonstrating initial capabilities.
• Artemis II (2026): Crewed mission to orbit the Moon, testing Orion with astronauts.
• Artemis III (2027, although few believe it will happen before 2028): First crewed lunar landing since Apollo, targeting the lunar south pole.
• Artemis IV-VI (2028-2031): Delivery of Gateway components (although the necessity of this Lunar orbital station is curently under serious doubts), each mission also having a lunar landing.
• Artemis VII-IX (2032-2034): Extended lunar landings with the delivery of lunar surface equipement and modules for the Artemis Base Camp near the lunar south pole.
• Artemis X (2035): Mission featuring astronauts staying on the Moon for up to 180 days, a significant step toward long-term presence. Completion of the initial stage of Artemis Base Camp.

NASA's long-term goal is to establish a sustainable human presence, including a lunar base camp, with plans for in-situ resource utilization, such as extracting water ice for fuel, oxygen, and water. While specific completion dates for a permanent base are less defined, the Artemis program aims for extended stays by the mid-2030s, leveraging international partnerships and commercial collaborations.

Comparative Analysis: Can China beat the US?

To evaluate whether China can beat the US in getting back to the Moon and establishing a continuous presence, we can compare key milestones and technological approaches:

• First Manned Landing: The US is set to land humans in 2027, three years before China's 2030 target, but recent evaluation suggests US won't be able to do it before 2028, in contract, China could be aiming for 2029, giving US only a marginal lead.
• Continuous Presence: Both nations aim for a continuous presence around 2035. China's ILRS is explicitly planned to be permanently habitable after 2035, with the first phase completed by then, while the US's Artemis X in 2035 includes extended stays, suggesting a similar timeline. The evidence leans toward a close race, with China's clear timeline for base completion contrasting with the US's incremental approach.
• Technological Approaches: China's focus on 3D-printing with lunar soil, as tested in Chang'e 8 (2028), could enhance sustainability, reducing reliance on Earth supplies. The US also plans ISRU and benefits from historical experience, broader international and commercial collaboration, potentially accelerating infrastructure development.

The outcome depends on execution, funding, and technological breakthroughs. China's rapid advancements, such as landing on the far side and sample returns, show momentum, but the US's established space program and commercial innovation (look no further than SpaceX) may provide an edge. However, budget uncertainties, technical delays, and shifting political priorities may push US timelines into the early 2030s. China’s steadily funded, state-driven program enjoys political continuity and growing partnerships. Yet, technology validation, life-support reliability, and deep-space logistics remain formidable hurdles. The coming decade will reveal whether China’s methodical cadence can outpace the US in achieving a continuous human foothold on the Moon.