Can China beat the US in the 2nd Space race to the Moon?

The Moon, a celestial body last visited by humans during the Apollo 17 mission in 1972, is once again at the forefront of a new space race. Both the United States and China have outlined ambitious plans to return astronauts to the lunar surface and establish permanent bases, signaling a new era of lunar competition. In recent years China has shown rapid progress in robotic exploration of the Moon, including its far side, but can China actually surpass the US in returning humans to the Moon and establishing a continuous human presence there?

China's Lunar Exploration Program: Plans and Timeline

China's lunar ambitions are encapsulated in the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, also known as the Chang'e program, named after the mythical moon goddess. This program has currently progressed through several phases, with the future phases focusing on manned missions and base construction:

• Phase 1: Orbiting (2007-2010): Chang'e 1 and 2 successfully orbited the Moon, mapping its surface and testing technologies, laying the groundwork for subsequent missions.
• Phase 2: Robotic landing (2013-2019): Chang'e 3 (2013) and Chang'e 4 (2019) achieved soft landings, with Chang'e 4 notably landing on the far side of the Moon, a first in space exploration history.
• Phase 3: Sample return (2020-2024): Chang'e 5 (2020) and Chang'e 6 (2024) returned lunar samples, with Chang'e 6 being the first to collect from the far side, enhancing understanding of lunar composition.
• Phase 4: Robotic research station (2026-2028): The goal of Phase 4 is the development of an autonomous lunar research station near the Moon's south pole. Chang’e 7 (2026) will survey the south pole for water-ice and test in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Chang’e 8 (2028) will demonstrate advanced technologies including 3D-printed structures and ISRU methods critical for a future habitat.
• Phase 5: Manned landing (2029-2030): China's National Space Administration (CNSA) aims to land its first two-person crew on the lunar surface by 2030 (in some recent presentations even 2029), using a Lanyue lander and a Mengzhou re-entry capsule launched by heavy-lift Long March 10 rockets from Hainan’s Wenchang site. Large-scale tests of the lander and capsule systems are “on schedule,” though experts note China still trails NASA in overall crewed lunar infrastructure.
• Phase 6: International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) (2035): China aims to establish ILRS in the 2030s, initially as a robotic base, with plans to make it permanently habitable after 2035. The first phase of the lunar base is expected to be completed around 2035, with an extended model by 2050, located near the lunar south pole for access to water ice.

China's technological approach includes leveraging ISRU, such as 3D-printing bricks from lunar soil during the Chang'e 8 mission, which could reduce reliance on Earth-based supplies and enhance sustainability. Research suggests China is also exploring lava tubes as potential habitats, offering natural protection from radiation and micrometeorites.

Poster "Join us on Mars" by Jode Thompson

Here is a poster "Join us on Mars" by Canadian illustrator Jode Thompson created for Jacob Haqq-Misra's article "Liberate the Red Planet" published on Boston Globe.

The poster features a retro-futuristic art style reminiscent of mid-20th-century sci-fi. The composition showcases a vibrant, warm-toned Martian landscape with jagged red rock formations. Silhouetted against this backdrop are two figures in space suits, standing side by side, gazing at the horizon where futuristic, antenna-topped structures hover above the terrain. Bold, stylized text proclaims "Join us on MARS" at the top, with "Apply for Citizenship Today" at the bottom, evoking a sense of adventure and possibility in a new frontier. The poster's textured, slightly distressed finish enhances its vintage aesthetic, blending nostalgia with a vision of interplanetary exploration.

Mars base model by Zuzanna Skąpska

A set of renders for a Mars base model created by Polish 3D artist Zuzanna Skąpska for Mission to Mars AR app, an interactive augmented reality experience allowing users to drive a rover, launch a rocket, and explore the Red Planet. The app was created by Immersion Labs for Smithsonian Institution and with collaboration with NASA.

The Mars base model presents a modular and expandable habitat system intended for human settlement on Mars. It comprises multiple interconnected cylindrical modules, each serving distinct functions such as living quarters, research labs, or storage. The central module, marked with "MARS 2020" and an American flag, serves as the primary living area, equipped with communication equipment and access points for surface operations. Adjacent to this is a domed greenhouse structure, crucial for growing food and supporting human life in the base. The design incorporates protective features against Mars' harsh conditions, including radiation shielding, and allows for future expansion as the base grows.

Lovell city on the Moon in "The Expanse" TV series - concept art by Lee Fitzgerald

After the bombardment of Earth Lovell City on Luna (the Moon) became the de facto capital of United Nations, one of the three competing powers in universe of The Expanse TV series - a political sci-fi drama set a few centuries in the future where humans have colonized the entire Solar system. Luna functions as a way station between Earth and the rest of the Solar system, and its spaceport at Lovell City serves as a natural meeting place between residents of the inner planets and Belters. Due to its lower gravity, Luna is the only body in the inner system that Belters can easily visit. UN citizens living on Luna are generally wealthier than most of their counterparts on Earth.

Here is a collection of concept art for the Lovell city by Canadian designer Lee Fitzgerald:

SpaceX Starship flight test 7 - infographic by Tony Bela

The 7th integrated flight test of SpaceX's Starship rocket is targeted to launch on Thursday, January 16 from Starbase, Boca Chica, Texas. It will be the 1st flight test of a new generation (block 2) Starship with significant upgrades and an attempt of Starship’s 1st payload deployment test. The 60-minute launch window will open at 4:00 p.m. CT.

Here is an infographic of the upcoming flight test by Australian space illustrator Tony Bela:

SpaceX: "A block of planned upgrades to the Starship upper stage will debut on this flight test, bringing major improvements to reliability and performance. The vehicle’s forward flaps have been reduced in size and shifted towards the vehicle tip and away from the heat shield, significantly reducing their exposure to reentry heating while simplifying the underlying mechanisms and protective tiling. While in space, Starship will deploy 10 Starlink simulators, similar in size and weight to next-generation Starlink satellites as the first exercise of a satellite deploy mission. The Starlink simulators will be on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship, with splashdown targeted in the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster will utilize flight proven hardware for the first time, reusing a Raptor engine from the booster launched and returned on Starship’s fifth flight test. Hardware upgrades to the launch and catch tower will increase reliability for booster catch."

New Year's Eve fireworks at a Martian colony

Celebrating New Year's Eve with fireworks at a human colony on Mars - a screenshot from 2022 science fiction teen comedy "Moonshot" set in 2049 when trips to Mars has become routine for skilled or wealthy people.

SpaceX Starship mission to Mars in 2030 - animated story by iamVisual

Canadian VFX artist and YouTuber iamVisual has created an animated short story of SpaceX's Starship human mission to Mars in 2030:

Starship launch towers in Starbase, Texas:

Stage separation:

New design for SpaceX Lunar Starship

During the livestream of Starship Flight test 6 SpaceX presented a new design for the Lunar Starship (Human Landing System) which NASA has selected for the Artemis missions returning humans to the surface of the Moon. According to the current schedule SpaceX is tasked to get Artemis III crew on the surface of the Moon in the end of 2026; we estimate this mission will slip for about two years – to 2028 because developing a human-rated spacecraft is a lot harder task than building "just" a cargo rocket.

An upgraded Lunar Starship for later Artemis missions:

SpaceX Starship orbital flight test 6 is scheduled on November 19

The 6th integrated flight test of SpaceX's Starship rocket (booster B13, ship S31) is targeted to launch on Tuesday, November 19 from Starbase, Boca Chica, Texas. It will be the last flight test of Starship Super Heavy v1 before moving to v2 prototypes. The 30-minute launch window will open at 4:00 p.m. CT.

SpaceX: "Starship’s fifth flight test [on October 13] was a seminal moment in iterating towards a fully and rapidly reusable launch system. On the first attempt, the Super Heavy booster successfully returned to the launch site and was caught by the chopstick arms of the launch and catch tower at Starbase. Starship’s upper stage went on to demonstrate several improvements, resulting in a controlled entry and high accuracy splashdown at the targeted area in the Indian Ocean. The next Starship flight test aims to expand the envelope on ship and booster capabilities and get closer to bringing reuse of the entire system online. Objectives include the booster once again returning to the launch site for catch, reigniting a ship Raptor engine while in space, and testing a suite of heatshield experiments and maneuvering changes for ship reentry and descent over the Indian Ocean."

Starship Super Heavy on launch mount before Flight Test 6 with Starbase Starship factory in the background:

Spaceship above Olympus Mons on Mars by Graham Gazzard

Picture of the Day 02/11/2024 - Spaceship in orbit above Olympus Mons, the largest volcano in the Solar System, by British sci-fi and aviation artist Graham Gazzard (also known as GrahamTG).